The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two separate areas as … There is a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea — designated Tropical Disturbance 1 — that could become a tropical depression next week. (See all EOTS posts here. ), well good Night Everyone..be safe out there, this this area cannot catch a break this year huh……. sustained winds near 70 MPH (110 MPH) with higher gusts. bullpucky … is there a way to report this garbage? By 5 p.m. EDT, Gamma’s center had moved off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and appeared to be stalled. At the time of formation, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued warnings and watches for a portion of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. However, as mentioned in last week’s fall hurricane outlook, climatology and our predictive analytics indicate that an additional strike somewhere in Florida is likely as not before the end of the season. Conditions for development of Gamma will become more hostile on Sunday and Monday, when high wind shear of 20-30 knots and dry air over the Gulf of Mexico will interfere with development, as will land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. NASA’s Terra satellite obtained visible imagery of Tropical Storm Gamma being battered by outside winds in the south central Gulf of Mexico. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting. The initial area to watch is a tropical wave currently producing showers and storms in the west-central Caribbean near Jamaica. Gamma brought heavy rainfall to the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend of Oct. 3 and 4. Thanks for another great update, Dr. Masters! Tropical Storm Gamma Tropical Cyclone Update It has a 60 percent chance of developing in the next five days or so. Gamma’s maximum sustained winds were about 65 mph, approaching the 74 mph mark that would classify it as a Category 1 hurricane. This is where it gets tricky. While there is certainly no guarantee that a Gamma (or Delta?) yes we need to stay alert this month for sure. Tuesday will be even warmer, however, with a high of 89 and a 50 percent chance of rain. Gamma’s landfall in Mexico gives the “Greek” storms of 2020 three consecutive landfalls, along with Alpha in Portugal and Beta in Texas. The remnant low-pressure area of Gamma was located off the north coast of Yucatan at 8 a.m. EDT. Given La Niña and abnormal Caribbean warmth, our seasonal modeling suggests hurricane risks in 2020 are double that of a typical latter third of the season, with a roughly 10-15% chance of an additional U.S. major hurricane landfall. ... Voting in 2020, ... Hurricane Delta's rain and storm surge makes a … Use escape to clear. ————————————————— The next name on the supplemental list is Gamma. Since I’ve invoked a cursed hurricane name, I do want to point out one key way the current set-up differs from October 2018. NHC Discussion on Gamma. Real vs. Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee start-up providing advanced weather and climate analytics, forensic meteorology and expert witness consulting, and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscription services. MONDAY UPDATE: Tropical Storm Delta forms south of Jamaica, could hit U.S. by week’s end, The CDC's tips for this pandemic-hurricane season, Get your documents and your data ready for a storm, The stuff you’ll need to stay safe — and comfortable — for the storm, Your pets can’t get ready for a storm. It was moving northwest at about 9 mph. ... 2020. Have a good Saturday! Because of these obstacles, the top intensity models generally show weakening of Gamma over the next five days. ), Giant Palm Takes Tree Trimmer for Crazy Ride. Flooding rainfall remains the greatest impact from Gamma in Mexico. The gyre pattern that will take shape in the western Caribbean over the next week is a typical precursor to those historical landfalls. Roatan, Honduras: 4.79 inches. ABOUT 0 MI…0 KM N OF TULUM MEXICO Think of a Central American Gyre as a giant roulette wheel: sometimes nothing forms from them, often a wimpy junk storm like Nestor arises, and commonly low-end hurricanes like Nate or Irene (1999) develop. gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) within the past hour. sustained winds near 70 MPH (110 MPH) with higher gusts. The tropical storm is expected to bring heavy rain and flash flooding in the coming days to southeastern Mexico and Central America, according to the National Weather Center’s 8 p.m. advisory. Meanwhile three other tropical systems are developing in the Atlantic, a sign that this busy storm season is rapidly resuming after a brief lull. Tropical storm warnings and watches remain in effect for portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula from north and west of Cancun to Campeche. It has just a 10 percent chance of strengthening in the next five days. Surface observations and satellite images indicate that the center The storm was very close to hurricane strength at landfall, with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph (110 mph) with higher gusts.”. ), (A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. About NASA’s Worldview and Terra Satellite, NASA’s Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Worldview application provides the capability to interactively browse over 700 global, full-resolution satellite imagery layers and then download the underlying data. While direct threats to Florida are not expected in the next five days, the long game is unclear. However, despite the incongruity with open windows and needing a light jacket, the tropics are likely to cough up at least one storm over the next two weeks that South Florida and the Florida Gulf Coast will need to monitor closely. of Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall in the northeast Yucatan Gamma's potential interaction with Tropical Storm Delta should then keep the system over the Yucatan, where it's forecast to dissipate soon. The tropical storm could reach Mexico as a hurricane. As a result, Gamma’s forward motion is expected to slow to less than 5 mph Saturday night through Monday, resulting in very heavy rains across much of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, portions of Central America, and western Cuba. That’s your job, Click here to find your evacuation zone and shelter, Tropical Storm Gamma forms, will bring rain to Tampa Bay. With environmental conditions likely to remain favorable and sea-surface temperatures well above normal in the Caribbean, this is a plausible outcome. Seems to be a stormy start to october huh. How Winter Fashion Has Changed in 100 Years (PHOTOS), Eerie Vintage Photos of People Battling the Flu. Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall on the eastern side of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula near Tulum about 11:45 CT, according to the National Hurricane Center. Tropical Storm Gamma continued to strengthen Saturday as it approaches Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, where it’s expected to make landfall early Sunday as a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Storm Gamma and three other tropical disturbances. The forecasted path of Tropical Storm Gamma, which could strengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the Mexican coast, according to the National Hurricane Center. NHC issued two key messages about Gamma, as the storm is expected to continue affecting the Yucatan Peninsula: Through midweek, Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020, …GAMMA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TULUM, MEXICO…. On Oct. 5, the NHC posted a warning and a watch. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The third system, Tropical Disturbance 3, is in the Atlantic about 1,000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda and moving west-southwest at 10 mph. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB…28.94 INCHES, © 2020 Yale Climate Connections | Site Host/Developer WebFirst, Tropical Storm Gamma Tropical Cyclone Update, Surface observations and satellite images indicate that the center, of Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall in the northeast Yucatan, Peninsula near Tulum, Mexico, around 1145 AM CDT. The convergence of low-level winds there, partially due to the wind shift along the stalled front, is also favorable for development. In addition to Gamma, forecasters say an area of the Caribbean bears watching for additional development this week. This week’s cold front has brought a blessed taste of what meteorologists refer to as (checks notes) “seasons” to Florida, making local consumption of pumpkin spices slightly less of a profane absurdity. Which City Is the Worst for Fall Allergies This Year? Gradual weakening is forecast, and Gamma is expected to become a depression this evening and degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tonight. The storm was, very close to hurricane strength at landfall, with maximum. The current model consensus is that a weak ridge of high pressure will build to the north of Gamma on Sunday and Monday, forcing the storm to move west or west-southwest Monday through Wednesday. The system was moving west-northwest at 15 mph toward the southern Gulf of Mexico. According to Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, the averages for this point in the season are nine named storms, five hurricanes, two intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 85. SST’s last 30 days….notice how Paulette and Teddy churned up cooler waters on the way towards Bermuda….. This wave, which was designated 92L by NHC on Saturday morning, was located south of Haiti on Saturday afternoon and was moving west-northwest at about 10 mph. At 2 p.m. EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.3 degrees north and longitude 87.9 degrees west. Turning and turning in the widening gyre will be several smaller areas of rotation pivoting around the broader whirl; Gamma may be first among these, but additional tropical development in the Caribbean, Gulf, or even eastern Pacific Ocean is possible over the next 10 days. Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Cancun, Mexico: 5.64 inches The satellite imagery was created using NASA’s Worldview product at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.